Gores Guggenheim Stock Doesn’t Have Luck or History on Its Side

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Gores Guggenheim (NASDAQ:GGPI) stock, when it eventually becomes Polestar, will hope for Simpsons-like success.

A close up of a Polestar vehicle in front of a company sign.

Source: Jeppe Gustafsson / Shutterstock.com

One of the reasons why the satirical animated sitcom The Simpsons has been around for more than three decades is its excellent writing. With sharp wit and a finger on the cultural pulse, the series has maintained unprecedented relevance.

So far, the jury’s still out on GGPI stock.

On the one hand, Polestar could potentially be even more relevant than The Simpsons. True, one of the benefits of running an animated sitcom is that the characters never age — and can easily transition between generations as the story calls for it.

With GGPI stock, however, time might not be a factor, at least not a negatively inevitable one.

If you believe that electric vehicles (EVs) are the future, then Polestar, an EV manufacturer aiming to build an accessible vehicle for the common household, is sitting on pole position.

When Carl Benz applied for a patent for his “vehicle powered by a gas engine,” the date was Jan. 29, 1886. If my math is correct, that’s a longer legacy than The Simpsons. Indeed, that date is so old that when I plug it into my Excel spreadsheet, the file gives me problems.

Therefore, if EVs represent the groundbreaking, paradigm-shattering revolution that seemingly everyone says it is, then GGPI stock is a no-brainer. About the only thing we’re debating, then, would be the entry point.

But on the other hand, EV makers are plying their trade in an ultra-competitive arena. Further, it’s not just about delivering the right vehicle but also hoping that economic factors move in the right direction. That’s where Polestar makes for a tricky case.

GGPI Stock and the Matter of Timing

In one episode of The Simpsons, the show creators revealed that at one point in his childhood, Homer Simpson had a beautiful angelic singing voice. As he was performing a solo with his church choir, his voice cracked and changed — the classic sign of puberty in boys. At the same time, Abraham Simpson, Homer’s dad, saw his dreams about cashing in on his son’s singing prowess vanish in an instant. In a similar vein, that’s how some people might perceive GGPI stock. 

As you probably know, one of the main criticisms about EVs is the underlying battery costs. That’s not just a challenge for GGPI stock but for any other EV competitor. However, as Bloomberg pointed out, such concerns might not be a permanent headwind. Indeed, economies of scale and technological efficiencies have helped steadily lower battery costs. But then, it raises the uncomfortable question (at least if you’re betting heavily on GGPI stock right now): why not wait even more so that consumers can get a cheaper EV?

Now, one of the reasons I’ve generally been bullish on rival Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) is that it competes in the upper range of the consumer income spectrum. Current Lucid buyers are not going to care about battery costs, not when they’re tooling around in a car commanding six figures.

But when you offer “reasonably priced” vehicles as Polestar is doing, suddenly, unnecessary costs come into the picture. Again, why buy now when waiting a few more years may organically yield a better price?

In fact, in a roundabout way, the Wall Street Journal implies that GGPI stock may court trouble. Americans are already keeping their cars for a record length of time, 12.1 years. They’re in no hurry to transition.

And Then Comes the Pandemic

As I’ve mentioned before, the coronavirus pandemic is no friend to GGPI stock. Likely, many of the folks who bought used cars at ridiculous premiums were forced into doing so.

Of course, buying well above sticker price isn’t necessarily a financial death sentence: you just need to hold onto your car for longer than usual to extract maximum value out of the purchase. Well, holy smokes! That’s just going to add even more time for consumers who may have been ready for a transition right about now if it weren’t for the Covid-19 crisis. So, the time delay may happen no matter what, putting GGPI stock in an uncomfortable situation.

To be 100% fair, there was no way that Polestar could have envisioned this massive disruption. It would have probably moved ahead with its public ambitions irrespective of the roadblocks. That still doesn’t take away from the concept that outside circumstances fell in one of the worst ways imaginable.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.

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